This weekend I went to an agility show in Oamaru. Naturally, coronavirus was a hot topic of conversation, and there were a few other subtle changes. Handshakes at prizegiving were replaced with elbow bumps. Some people were asking others to give them a bit more personal space. We all seemed to stand a bit further apart when we were chatting – especially when we were talking about the virus!
Today the Ministry of Health has issued advice about mass gatherings and events. The current advice is to cancel events with 500 or more people attending. This is more than we would see at any agility show except for a North Island NZDAC. Dogs NZ (via email) and the Agility Committee (via Facebook) have also issued statements stating that it is up to individual clubs to decide whether they wish to proceed with their shows.
We’ve got a long way to go
At the moment there is no evidence of community transmission of coronavirus in New Zealand. Nothing has changed in the last 2 weeks. The 5 additional cases in that time are all in individuals who have recently travelled to virus hot spots, or who live with others who do. The new self-isolation requirement means (in theory) we are all better protected.
However, I see it as inevitable that we will have community transmission here, and a significant number of deaths. This is likely to be the largest pandemic in 100 years. It’s not going to just stop in a few months, and we can’t keep the border closed forever. This isn’t as simple as “if we stop agility for a few months, thousands of lives will be saved”.
The best case scenario is that we have a series of small self-contained local outbreaks that don’t overwhelm our health system. The best case scenario is also that we all have jobs at the end of it. Our government has a lot of very difficult decisions to make as they try to balance these competing priorities. They have a lot of very smart people, including scientists, helping them to do this. They are better informed to make decisions than Dogs NZ, the Agility Committee, or a Facebook post about someone’s auntie’s friend who used to be a doctor in China.
At this stage the Ministry of Health is indicating that smaller-scale gatherings such as agility shows are OK. I intend to continue competing until this advice changes, or until we have confirmed cases of community transmission in the South Island.
How High-Risk is an Agility Show?
Looking at some of the risk factors for spreading disease at events (examples here and here), there is a lot in our favour:
- Level of contact – “close contact” means being within 2m of someone for 15 minutes. Ours is an extremely non-contact sport. While we do tend to spend a lot of time sitting around chatting, we maintain our personal space. There were about 100 people at the show this weekend; I think I had close contact (as defined above) with 3 people.
- Location – most agility shows are outdoors, which reduces the risk of spreading the disease. This will be something for winter event organisers to think about though.
- Traceability of contacts – at unticketed free events, it’s not possible to identify everyone who attended. This makes it hard for public health to trace the contacts of infected people. Agility clubs would be able to provide a list of competitors if required. Usually no more than a handful of people attending who are not competitors or family members.
- Little international exposure – it’s pretty rare to have international visitors to an agility event. Locals who have recently returned from holiday should now be self-isolating, so we shouldn’t have anyone who is fresh off the plane.
On the other hand:
- Age of competitors – older people are at higher risk of dying if they catch coronavirus. While we have a younger demographic than other dog sports, we do have a significant number in the 60+ age group.
- Kitchens and bathrooms – we’ve all used the dog club bathroom with no soap and one soggy towel for everyone to share. I’ve also seen some pretty shoddy food hygiene practices at lunchtime (e.g. handling money with the same gloves that handle food). I’d like to see clubs put a bit more thought into this area of their shows.
- Domestic travel – unlike most weekend sporting events, agility shows tend to bring together people from a fairly wide geographic area. An agility competitor with the virus could spread it to someone who lives hundreds of kilometres away.
(Refrain and) Train, Don’t Complain
Ultimately it is up to an individual to decide whether or not to attend an agility event. Maybe you are at higher risk due to health issues, or a family member is. It’s up to you to decide how much you will alter your lifestyle in order to minimise your risk . I fully support anyone who decides that it is best for them not to participate in agility right now.
If you don’t go to an agility show, you won’t get infected there. Refraining from agility means that other people’s decisions about whether to proceed with shows are no longer your concern. You will now have a lot of extra free time, which you can use for teaching your dog a new skill, dabbling in a hobby that you’ve always wanted to try, catching up on housework, walking on the beach, working through that pile of books waiting to be read, soaking in the bath … or getting riled up on social media about the decisions that other people make. Which will you choose?